Our Thoughts
Better than expected outcomes - Revisited
As we've highlighted in past outlooks, we firmly believe we are still in the midst of a long-term secular bull market that began in 2009 and was confirmed in 2013. This trend remains intact, and we believe it could extend into the early 2030’s — potentially even 2035—driven by macroeconomic and demographic tailwinds.
What’s in store for Q4
Uncertainty is ramping up. Most notably, expanding geopolitical tensions and US election rhetoric, extreme market valuations, and unsustainable national debt.
Recession Still on the table?
If the consumer is hurt, they spend less. When consumers spend less, the economy weakens and businesses reduce their capital expenditures leading to layoffs and spending cuts. Former New York Fed president, Bill Dudley, refers to this as a “feedback loop”.
Bank runs and 54% chance of recession?
If you recall, in last month's market outlook I remarked that I am cautiously optimistic (read here). I likened my cautiousness to the yellow flag that is waived in a formula one race.
Reduce speed, do not overtake, and be prepared to change direction.
Did the Market Just Bottom?
There is only one investor, no longer living among us, that time and time again successfully called and navigated every top and bottom pretty much perfectly. His name?... Bernie Madoff. Ba dum tss!
And we all know how that story goes.